South Africa–China Trade: What Is Driving Growth in November 2026?

Last verified: November 8, 2026, at 4:01 a.m. UTC (UTC+00:00).

Interest in expanding South Africa–China trade has a concrete driver: since May 2026, qualifying South African goods have been able to enter China without customs duties under a temporary preference scheme. The opportunity comes as both countries seek more trade and investment, but South Africa also wants to narrow a substantial gap between what it buys from China and what it sells there.

Early figures point to growth in both directions. At an October briefing, China’s ambassador to South Africa cited South African Revenue Service figures showing nearly US$15 billion in bilateral trade from May through August 2026, up nearly 24% from a year earlier. South African exports to China rose nearly 25% to US$5.3 billion, while imports from China increased 23% to US$9.47 billion. Those changes alone do not establish how much growth was caused by the tariff policy. Chinese embassy report on the briefing

Destaques

• China’s temporary preference applies to qualifying South African exports from May 1, 2026, through April 30, 2028.
• Exporters must meet rules of origin and obtain the required certificate; some tariff lines are subject to quotas.
• South Africa is seeking more sales of agricultural and higher-value manufactured products, alongside investment and jobs.
• Trade has grown, but South Africa continues to import substantially more from China than it exports there.

What changed in South Africa–China trade in 2026?

China introduced a temporary, nonreciprocal tariff preference for South Africa and other eligible African countries. Nonreciprocal means South Africa does not have to grant an equivalent tariff cut under this temporary scheme. According to the South African government, qualifying goods receive zero customs duties when they satisfy the applicable tariff schedule and rules of origin.

The preference followed a February framework agreement aimed at expanding economic cooperation. The agreement identified South African agricultural products and higher-value manufactured goods as areas for increased exports to China. South Africa already sells products such as citrus and rooibos tea there, according to its trade department.

Businesses have begun using the new process. South Africa’s government news service reported that the revenue service issued 25,975 certificates of origin between June 1 and August 31. A certificate is evidence used to establish that a product meets the scheme’s origin requirements; the number issued is an indicator of activity, not a count of new exporters or proof that each shipment generated additional sales. South African Government News Agency

Why do South Africa and China want to increase trade?

For South Africa, China offers a large market in which lower import duties can improve the price competitiveness of qualifying goods. Officials want businesses to sell a broader range of products, including processed foods, beverages, chemicals, machinery and automotive goods. The aim is to translate market access into production, investment and employment at home, rather than rely mainly on sales of raw materials.

For China, South Africa is an established market for manufactured goods and a source of minerals and other products. Investment can also support Chinese companies seeking to produce or sell in the South African market. The South African government has highlighted interest in sectors including mining, agriculture, renewable energy and technology.

The relationship was already significant before the 2026 preference. South African government figures put bilateral trade at 642 billion South African rand in 2025, up from 483 billion rand in 2021. South African exports to China rose from 198 billion to 222 billion rand over that period, while imports from China increased from 284 billion to 420 billion rand. These are annual figures in rand; they should not be directly compared with the separate May–August 2026 figures in U.S. dollars. South African Government News Agency

Is trade between South Africa and China balanced?

No. The 2025 figures show a gap of roughly 198 billion rand between South Africa’s imports from China and its exports to China. A larger total trade figure can therefore coexist with a persistent or even wider bilateral deficit. That gap is one reason South African policymakers emphasize the type and direction of trade, not just its overall value.

The imbalance is especially visible in manufactured goods. In its 2026 exchange-rate index revision, the South African Reserve Bank found that China supplied 35.7% of South Africa’s manufactured imports but received about 5.9% of its manufactured exports. The percentages use different denominators, so they show each country’s importance within different trade flows rather than a direct deficit calculation.

What must exporters do to benefit from zero tariffs?

Lower duties do not remove every obstacle to selling in China. Exporters need to check their product’s tariff classification, applicable origin rules and documentation. The South African Revenue Service says a certificate of origin is required to claim the preference, and some products are subject to tariff-rate quotas. Food and other regulated products may also face standards and market-entry requirements.

The revenue service’s guidance explains how to apply for certification and says exporters must retain records for five years. Companies should also assess shipping, distribution, competition and buyer demand: a zero customs duty can improve a product’s price, but it does not guarantee a sale or eliminate other costs.

What happens next, and why does it matter in Canada?

The temporary preference is scheduled to end on April 30, 2028. South Africa and its partners in the Southern African Customs Union are pursuing a longer-term arrangement with China, but its final terms and effects should not be assumed before negotiations are complete. The key measures to watch are whether South African exports diversify, whether firms can meet entry requirements, and whether investment produces sustained local activity.

For Canadian readers and businesses, the development offers a window into changing competition in global markets for minerals, food and manufactured goods. A South African product that gains easier access to China could face different competitive conditions there; the effect on any Canadian supplier will depend on the product, prices and applicable trade rules. The South Africa–China preference does not itself grant Canadian goods duty-free entry.

FAQ

Has South Africa–China trade increased?

Yes, according to figures cited at an October 2026 briefing: trade reached nearly US$15 billion from May through August, up nearly 24% from the same period in 2025. Both exports and imports grew.

Are all South African exports to China automatically duty-free?

No. Goods must qualify under the origin rules and meet documentation requirements. Some tariff lines are subject to quotas and other conditions.

Is the zero-tariff scheme permanent?

No. The current temporary scheme runs from May 1, 2026, to April 30, 2028. Negotiations on a longer-term arrangement are separate.