Israeli Election Results: Netanyahu Leads, but Can He Form a Government?

Israel's October 27, 2026 election has not produced a clear governing majority for Benjamin Netanyahu. His Likud party remains the largest single party in the preliminary count, but being first is not the same as having enough parliamentary support to stay in office. The crucial number is 61: that is the majority in Israel's 120-seat Knesset. Both Netanyahu's established political alliance and the main opposition grouping are short of it.

Results status, October 28, 2026: Figures released during the count remain provisional. At approximately 3:07 p.m. in Israel (Israel Standard Time, UTC+02:00; 1:07 p.m. UTC), estimates based on the Central Elections Committee's partial count placed Netanyahu's bloc on 53 seats, the bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot on 48, and the two Arab-led parties together on 19. Those are political-bloc estimates, not an official division announced by the electoral commission. Approximately 85.6% of votes had been counted, with special ballots still outstanding. The figures may change.

What do the Israeli election results actually show?

The numbers explain the apparent contradiction in election-night headlines: Netanyahu can lead the count without winning control of the next government. Likewise, an anti-Netanyahu majority on paper is not necessarily a coalition prepared to govern together. Likud's lead over Eisenkot's centrist Yashar does not settle the question of who can command parliamentary confidence.

Voting took place Tuesday, October 27, 2026. Polls closed at 10:00 p.m. in Israel (Israel Standard Time, UTC+02:00), equivalent to 8:00 p.m. UTC. For readers in Sydney and Melbourne, that was 7:00 a.m. on Wednesday, October 28 (Australian Eastern Daylight Time, UTC+11:00). The latest count cited above corresponded to 12:07 a.m. on October 29 in those cities. These conversions account for Israel's late-October return to standard time and Australia's daylight saving schedule.

Why 61 seats matters more than who finishes first

Israel uses nationwide proportional representation, so voters choose party lists rather than directly electing a prime minister. Lists must clear a 3.25% electoral threshold to win seats. Relatively small changes in votes for parties near that threshold can therefore alter the overall balance of power.

In the 2022 election, Netanyahu's allies secured 64 seats, giving him a viable majority. The current preliminary 53-seat estimate is a fundamentally different negotiating position. It indicates that a repeat of his previous coalition, on the same parties alone, would not be sufficient.

Final results are not due until the count and verification process is complete. The Central Elections Committee's official timetable for the 26th Knesset election sets November 4, 2026 as the deadline for publishing the results. A final allocation can differ from the election-night projection, especially while ballots cast by soldiers, diplomats and other special voters are being counted.

Netanyahu's options: four possible paths, with trade-offs

1. Persuade additional lawmakers to support his coalition

At 53 seats, Netanyahu would need at least eight more seats to obtain a conventional majority. He could approach parties outside his existing alliance or negotiate support for a governing arrangement. His advantage is an established network of right-wing and religious partners; his disadvantage is that some potential allies campaigned against another Netanyahu government. Any new deal would likely involve difficult agreements on cabinet positions and policy.

2. Negotiate a broader unity government

A cross-bloc agreement could bring parties with sharply different views into the same government and potentially avoid another election. It could also reduce the leverage of smaller coalition partners. But a unity deal would raise difficult questions about who serves as prime minister, national security policy, the role of ultra-Orthodox parties, and whether outgoing allies would participate. A larger numerical coalition is not automatically more coherent.

3. Watch Eisenkot attempt a different majority

Eisenkot's 48-seat grouping plus the Arab-led parties' projected 19 seats totals 67 seats in arithmetic terms. This is why the Arab-led parties' gains matter so much. However, the Joint List and Ra'am have different positions, and several parties in the predominantly Jewish opposition have expressed reservations about governing with Arab-led parties. Support from outside a formal coalition is another possibility, but it could produce a less stable government. The numerical pathway is real; political agreement is not guaranteed.

4. Remain in office during a prolonged deadlock

If no candidate can secure a workable coalition, Netanyahu may continue as caretaker prime minister while negotiations proceed. That would preserve continuity but limit prospects for a government with a settled parliamentary mandate. If the statutory attempts to form a government fail, another election is possible. Calling a fresh vote is not an immediate or automatic consequence of these preliminary results.

What happens after the votes are counted?

President Isaac Herzog is responsible for consulting parliamentary groups and assigning the task of forming a government to a lawmaker judged best positioned to succeed. That need not be the leader of the largest party. According to the Israeli presidency's explanation of the constitutional process, the president generally makes the assignment within seven days after publication of official results.

The first designated lawmaker normally has 28 days to assemble a government, with extensions totaling up to 14 additional days available. Further legal stages apply if that attempt fails. Ultimately, a new government must win the Knesset's confidence. The Knesset's guide to government formation explains the process and confirms that the outgoing government continues functioning until its replacement takes office.

What issues could influence coalition negotiations?

Prospective partners will be weighing more than the prime minister's identity. The October 7, 2023 Hamas-led attack, the subsequent wars and Israel's security response have made national security and accountability major political questions. Parties also differ over judicial and institutional policy, the relationship between religion and state, the military-service obligations of ultra-Orthodox men, economic pressures, and relations with Palestinians.

Netanyahu's supporters may argue that his experience and strategic continuity are valuable in an unstable region. Opponents may argue that the security failures and years of political confrontation strengthen the case for new leadership. These are political judgments, not conclusions established by the vote count. The next governing agreement, if one emerges, will show which priorities coalition partners actually accept.

What should Australian readers watch next?

For Australia, the immediate result is uncertainty about who will set Israeli government policy, not an automatic change in bilateral relations or Middle East security arrangements. Three developments will provide a clearer answer: the final certified seat allocation, the parties' recommendations to President Herzog, and any written coalition agreement followed by a Knesset confidence vote. Campaign promises alone cannot establish the next government's policy.

Bottom line: Netanyahu has not secured a majority in the October 2026 election, but he has not been decisively removed from office either. With 53 seats projected for his bloc and substantial support outside both principal blocs, the outcome depends on final counting and on which leaders can turn parliamentary arithmetic into an actual governing agreement.