NAB Housing Outlook: What Buyers and Mortgage Holders Should Do Now — 14 November 2026

Updated: 14 November 2026, 12:18 p.m. AEDT (UTC+11:00)

Australia’s housing market is presenting a tougher calculation for both buyers and existing borrowers. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate to 4.85% on 3 November, and fresh Australian Bureau of Statistics data show new dwelling loan commitments dropped 15% in the September quarter. For households, that means reassessing borrowing capacity and repayment buffers before committing to a purchase or assuming rates will soon fall.

NAB’s latest housing monitor describes continued price declines and forecasts a deeper peak-to-trough fall, while its chief executive Andrew Irvine told a parliamentary committee that customers are dealing with higher inflation, interest rates and living costs. These are reported conditions and a bank forecast, not a guarantee of where prices or rates will go next.

Destaques

• The RBA’s cash rate target is 4.85% following its 3 November decision.
• ABS reports new dwelling loan commitments fell 15% by number and 15.5% by value in the September quarter.
• NAB forecasts a roughly 14% peak-to-trough decline in dwelling prices, with a possible floor in the second quarter of 2027.
• Borrowers can act now by stress-testing repayments, checking loan options and contacting their lender early if cash flow is tightening.

What changed in Australia’s housing market?

The ABS’s September-quarter lending release, published on 11 November, records 111,878 new dwelling loan commitments, down 15% from the June quarter. The value of those commitments fell 15.5% to A$81.2 billion. Owner-occupier commitments declined 5.3% by number, while investor commitments fell 30.6%. First-home-buyer commitments were down 8.6% quarter on quarter. These figures exclude refinancing, so they describe new housing finance rather than borrowers switching or renewing existing loans. ABS Lending indicators, September Quarter 2026.

The decline matters in practical terms: fewer buyers are completing the finance process, and some households may be delaying a purchase, borrowing less or waiting for a clearer view of rates and prices. The data do not prove why any individual borrower stepped back, nor do they mean every suburb or property type is falling at the same pace.

NAB’s November housing monitor says combined-capital dwelling values fell 1.4% in October and were 8.1% below their March 2026 peak. Its forecast is for a peak-to-trough fall of about 14%, with prices potentially finding a floor in the second quarter of 2027. NAB also reports regional and city differences: Sydney values were 10.1% below their peak, while declines in Brisbane and Perth accelerated in October. A forecast is conditional; it can change as interest rates, employment, inflation and buyer demand change. NAB Economics, Housing Monitor, November 2026.

How do higher rates affect mortgage holders?

The RBA’s 3 November decision increased the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.85%. The RBA said it was acting to bring inflation back to target; Governor Michele Bullock also cautioned that policy effects take time to pass through the economy and that the Board would assess incoming data rather than promise a particular next move. The decision therefore raises pressure on borrowers, but it does not establish that another increase—or a cut—is certain. RBA monetary policy decision media conference, 3 November 2026.

Variable-rate borrowers should check their current rate, minimum repayment and offset or redraw balance, then calculate whether the household budget still works if repayments rise again. Fixed-rate borrowers approaching expiry can ask their lender for an estimate of repayments after the fixed period and compare available options early. A comparison should account for fees, features and the total cost over the relevant term, not just the headline rate.

If repayments are becoming difficult, contact the lender before missing a payment and ask about hardship support or a review of the loan. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission’s Moneysmart guidance explains steps for people struggling with mortgage repayments: Moneysmart: trouble paying your mortgage.

What should prospective buyers do before making an offer?

Use a current borrowing assessment rather than an older pre-approval as a spending limit. Ask the lender or broker to confirm how the latest rate environment affects serviceability, repayments and any conditions on approval. Then build a separate budget for rates, insurance, maintenance, strata costs where relevant, and moving expenses. Keep a cash buffer after settlement instead of using every available dollar for the deposit.

Slower activity and NAB’s reported longer selling times may give some buyers more time to inspect comparable properties and negotiate. That is an opportunity to do due diligence, not evidence that every seller will accept a lower offer. Compare recent sales in the same area, arrange an independent building inspection and avoid relying on NAB’s national forecast to predict the value of one home.

Will Australian home prices fall further?

NAB’s November monitor expects a deeper decline than previously forecast, with a possible floor in Q2 2027. That is NAB’s outlook, not an official RBA or ABS prediction. Actual prices will depend on local supply and demand, borrowing capacity, employment and the path of inflation and interest rates. Buyers should make a purchase decision that remains affordable if prices fall further or take longer to recover.

Frequently asked questions

What is Australia’s cash rate now?

The RBA raised its cash rate target to 4.85% on 3 November 2026.

Are new home loans declining?

Yes. ABS data show the number of new dwelling loan commitments fell 15% in the September quarter compared with the previous quarter.

Should I wait for house prices to bottom?

No one can know the bottom in advance. Base the decision on a sustainable budget, property-specific checks and how long you plan to own the home.