Updated November 14, 2026, 12:16 p.m. AEDT (UTC+11:00).
NAB chief executive Andrew Irvine told a parliamentary committee on November 13 that Australians are contending with higher interest rates, inflation and living costs, while recent tax changes have also required adjustment in the housing market. He called for increased housing supply as part of a broader productivity push.
The data released alongside those comments show lending has cooled sharply. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that new dwelling loan commitments fell 15 per cent by number and 15.5 per cent by value in the September quarter, seasonally adjusted. Investor lending dropped particularly steeply. For buyers, the figures point to a market where borrowing appetite has weakened; for existing mortgage holders, the pressure is real but not uniform.
In his opening statement to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, Irvine described a slowing economy with higher inflation and interest rates, rising living costs and heightened global uncertainty. He said significant tax changes announced in the May federal budget had required adjustment, including in the housing market. He also noted that many customers were managing, while others were finding conditions tougher.
His proposed longer-term response focused partly on supply. Irvine said lifting productivity would require increasing housing supply, alongside more affordable and reliable energy and conditions that make it easier for businesses to invest and create jobs. His remarks frame housing as both a household affordability concern and an economic capacity issue.
These were Irvine’s views as a bank chief executive, not a government policy announcement or a forecast that home prices will move in a particular direction. The NAB statement did not set out a target for new homes or a timetable for reducing prices.
The ABS’s September-quarter release gives the clearest recent measure of new borrowing commitments. The seasonally adjusted number of dwelling commitments fell to 111,878, down 15 per cent from the June quarter and 21.4 per cent from a year earlier. Their value declined 15.5 per cent over the quarter to $81.2 billion.
The downturn was uneven. Owner-occupier commitments fell 5.3 per cent by number. First-home buyer commitments were down 8.6 per cent, to 26,415. Investor commitments fell 30.6 per cent, to 35,301. These figures exclude refinancing and cover commitments for constructing or purchasing dwellings.
The Reserve Bank’s November Statement on Monetary Policy says new housing loan commitments are 27 per cent below their November 2025 peak. It attributes the broad decline to higher interest rates and says the investor pullback has been more pronounced, particularly for established homes. The RBA also says recent tax changes affecting investment returns have contributed to softer investor demand.
Fewer new commitments do not, by themselves, show that every homebuyer has lost access to credit or that prices will keep falling. They do show that fewer borrowers are taking on new purchase loans than at the market’s recent peak.
The RBA’s October Financial Stability Review presents a mixed picture. Scheduled principal-and-interest mortgage payments rose to just over 10 per cent of household disposable income in the September quarter, around the 2024 peak, according to its November policy statement. Further payment increases may follow as the September cash-rate rise passes through to loans.
At the same time, the RBA estimates that the share of variable-rate owner-occupier borrowers with a cash-flow shortfall is a little under 2 per cent and is expected to remain well below its 2024 peak for some time. It says most borrowers retain buffers, and less than 1 per cent are estimated to owe more than their home is worth. These aggregate estimates cannot describe every household’s situation, and borrowers with tighter budgets can face significant strain even when the overall share remains low.
NAB has separately reported an increase in loans it places on watch and early-stage arrears. Irvine said customers had so far remained resilient and savings buffers were still high, while some needed more support. That is a lender’s account of its own customers, not a nationwide measure of mortgage stress.
The verified data show weaker new borrowing, particularly among investors, alongside household payments near a recent high. The RBA says housing credit growth has eased and may decline further as earlier price and turnover falls feed through to lending with a lag. This is a conditional outlook, not a guaranteed path for prices, rates or approvals.
For prospective buyers, the numbers are a reason to check borrowing capacity against current repayments and leave room in a budget for further cost pressure. For current borrowers, contacting a lender early if repayments are becoming difficult can make support options easier to discuss. Irvine’s emphasis on supply points to a longer-term issue: lower demand may cool borrowing, but it does not itself resolve a shortage of homes.
The number of new dwelling loan commitments fell 15 per cent in the September quarter of 2026, seasonally adjusted.
Investor commitments fell 30.6 per cent by number in the quarter, compared with a 5.3 per cent fall for owner-occupiers.
No. The RBA estimates the share of variable-rate owner-occupier borrowers with a cash-flow shortfall is just under 2 per cent, though household experiences differ.
Sources: NAB, Andrew Irvine’s opening statement to the House Economics Committee; Australian Bureau of Statistics, Lending Indicators, September Quarter 2026; Reserve Bank of Australia, Statement on Monetary Policy, November 2026; Reserve Bank of Australia, Financial Stability Review, October 2026; AAP, NAB results and customer conditions.
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