Updated: November 14, 2026, 1:18 a.m. UTC
NAB chief executive Andrew Irvine told a parliamentary committee on November 13 that recent tax changes have required adjustments in Australia’s housing market, as higher interest rates and living costs add pressure on households. The comments point to a property market facing weaker confidence and more cautious borrowing, but they do not amount to a forecast of widespread mortgage failure: the Reserve Bank of Australia says severe borrower stress and arrears remain relatively low.
The immediate takeaway for buyers and owners is to separate a softer market from a financial-system crisis. NAB’s latest property survey found professionals expect prices to fall over the next year, while the RBA says most mortgagors still have savings or equity buffers. Irvine’s remarks are best read as a warning about affordability, confidence and economic trade-offs, rather than a prediction that every Australian home or mortgage is in trouble.
In his opening statement to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, Irvine described Australians as resilient but said households and businesses were dealing with higher inflation, interest rates, living costs and global uncertainty. He added that significant tax changes announced in the May federal budget had required adjustment, including in housing. The committee hearing took place in Canberra on November 13; NAB published Irvine’s statement on the same date.
That is a measured description of pressure, not a detailed house-price forecast. Irvine’s wider point was that economic conditions are challenging in the short to medium term, while Australia’s longer-term outlook remains positive. His comments do not provide a new target for property prices or a direct instruction for households to buy or sell.
The statement also connects housing to productivity. When households and investors see property as the clearest route to wealth, capital and attention may concentrate in real estate instead of flowing to other parts of the economy. That is an interpretation of the broader debate—not a claim that buying a home is itself unproductive. Housing provides shelter, and new construction can add to supply; the policy question is how to improve access while supporting investment in productive businesses and more homes.
NAB’s Residential Property Survey for the September quarter found its sentiment index dropped 18 points to -4, entering negative territory for the first time in six years. Property professionals expected home prices to fall 4.2% over the following 12 months, a more pessimistic outlook than the 2.5% decline forecast in the June-quarter survey. These are survey expectations, not a guaranteed outcome.
The same survey points to a supply-side problem that Irvine’s comments cannot solve alone. Seventy-seven percent of respondents cited construction costs as a barrier to new housing projects. Interest rates were the second-most-cited constraint, at 58.3%, followed by planning-permit delays at 54.1%. Survey respondents expected rents to rise 3.7% over the next year. Weaker price expectations, therefore, do not automatically mean housing is becoming affordable: construction costs and other supply constraints can continue to limit new homes while rents remain under pressure.
NAB’s October housing monitor, referenced on its survey page, reported that dwelling prices across the combined capital cities fell for a seventh consecutive month in October, down 1.4% for the month and 8.1% below their March 2026 peak. That reading is a recent observed movement; the survey’s 4.2% figure is a forward-looking expectation. The two measures answer different questions and should not be treated as interchangeable.
The RBA’s October 2026 Financial Stability Review offers important context. It estimates that around 2% of variable-rate owner-occupier borrowers had a cash-flow shortfall—meaning income was not enough to cover scheduled mortgage repayments and essential expenses. The share of housing loans more than three months behind had edged up, but remained around pre-pandemic levels. The central bank says most borrowers are expected to remain resilient, supported by employment, savings and home equity.
These system-wide figures do not erase hardship for households already struggling. The RBA notes that lower-income borrowers are more likely to face a shortfall and may have to cut spending, sell assets or work extra hours. A household’s position depends on its income, loan size, interest rate, expenses and savings; national averages cannot determine whether a particular mortgage is manageable.
The RBA also says recent tax changes affecting housing and a higher cash rate have contributed to weaker demand for housing credit and falling prices after several years of strong growth. It estimates that fewer than 1% of borrowers are currently in negative equity. Even in a modeled scenario of a further uniform 20% price fall, around 5% of mortgages would enter negative equity. That is a stress scenario, not the RBA’s prediction of what prices will do.
For prospective buyers, the combination of weaker confidence and lower price expectations may create more room to negotiate in some markets. But it does not ensure a bargain: prices vary by location and property, and financing costs, construction constraints and household budgets remain relevant. Buyers should assess repayments against their own income and expenses and consider how they would cope if costs rose or income fell.
For current owners, Irvine’s comments do not signal an automatic need to sell or refinance. The more useful question is whether the household can meet repayments and essentials while retaining a suitable buffer. Borrowers anticipating difficulty can contact their lender early to discuss options; the RBA’s aggregate data should not be used as a substitute for personal financial advice.
For the market overall, the next direction depends on several factors: interest rates, household confidence, policy settings and whether construction costs and planning delays ease enough to support new supply. NAB’s survey suggests professionals currently see downside pressure on prices. The RBA’s assessment suggests the financial system has buffers to absorb weaker prices, though it continues to monitor household risks. Neither source makes a guaranteed call about the next year.
A falling price index does not mean every buyer can afford a home. Borrowing capacity depends on repayments and income as well as the purchase price, while higher rates can offset some benefit from a lower asking price. At the same time, rents can keep rising and new construction can remain constrained. NAB’s survey captures that tension: respondents expect prices to fall, but also expect rents to rise and identify significant barriers to development.
For policy, Irvine’s remarks highlight a broader challenge: improving housing access while maintaining a supply of new homes and encouraging investment across the economy. The survey data support the case that financing, construction costs and approval delays matter. They do not establish that any single tax or policy change alone explains affordability or determines future prices.
No. His published statement said tax changes had prompted housing-market adjustment and described economic challenges. It did not set a price target or predict a crash.
NAB’s September-quarter survey found property professionals expected prices to fall 4.2% over the next 12 months. That is a survey expectation, not a guaranteed forecast.
The RBA estimated that around 2% of variable-rate owner-occupier borrowers had a cash-flow shortfall in the first half of 2026. Individual circumstances vary.
Sources: NAB, Andrew Irvine’s opening statement to the House Economics Committee; NAB Residential Property Survey, September quarter 2026; Reserve Bank of Australia, Financial Stability Review, October 2026.
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